We use cookies to improve your experience on our site and to show you personalised advertising. To find out more, read our privacy policy and cookie policy

Skip to Content
University of Wollongong Australia. Logo. University of Wollongong Australia. Logo. University of Wollongong Australia. Logo.
  • Search
  • Give
  • Library
  • Current Students
  • Staff
  • UOW Global
    • Our global presence
    • UOW in Dubai
    • UOW in Hong Kong
    • UOW in Malaysia
  • Menu
  • Study at UOW

    • Courses
    • Apply
    • Scholarships & grants
    • Accommodation
    • High-school students
    • Non-school leavers
    • Postgraduate students
    • International students
    • Moving to Wollongong
    • Study abroad & exchange
    • Global sport programs
    • Campuses
    Study at UOW
  • Engage

    • Future student
    • Alumni
    • Visit UOW
    • Woolyungah Indigenous Centre
    • Volunteer
    • The Stand Magazine
    • Community Members
    • Grants and funding
    • Give to UOW
    • Visit the Library
    • Key contacts
    • Educators & school teachers
    Engage with us
  • About UOW

    • Welcome
    • Our people
    • Services
    • Contacts
    • What's on
    • Global presence
    • Media Centre
    • Faculties & schools
    • Our vision & strategy
    • Our Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Strategy
    • Our reputation & experience
    • Locations, campuses & partners
    See more about UOW
  • Research

    • Our research
    • Researcher support
    • Research impact
    • Partnership & collaboration
    • Graduate Research School
    • Commercial research
    • Global Challenges
    • Media, news & events
    • Find an expert
    • Our people
    See more about research
  • Industry

    • Generator Lab
    • Advantage SME
    • Success stories
    • Industry research engagement
    • Equipment & Labs
    • Funding opportunities
    • Intellectual property
    • Collaboration for business
    • Collaboration for researchers
    • Careers and employability
    See more about Industry
  • Alumni

    • Benefits
    • Outlook Magazine
    • Events & webinars
    • Volunteer
    • Awards
    • Honorary alumni
    • Testamurs & transcripts
    • Update your details
    • Your career journey
    • Contact us & FAQ
    See more about alumni
  • Quick links

    • Contact directory
    • Staff Intranet
    • Campus maps
    • Transport & parking
    • Key dates
    • Events
    • Password management
    • Jobs
    • Accommodation
    • Policy directory
  • Library
You are here More Pages
  • Home
  • About UOW
  • Media Centre
  • 2015
  • The strategic case for Option J: an alternative view

Media Quick Links

  • Contact UOW Media
  • Visiting campus
  • Image library
  • UOW key facts
  • Find an expert
  • News Corp subscription
  • Sign up for the latest news from UOW Media

April 9, 2015


  • Story By
  • Sam Bateman
Share
Type
Opinion Pieces
Category
Law, Politics and Society
Tags
Politics

UOW in the News

The strategic case for Option J: an alternative view

Andrew Davies and Benjamin Schreer argue in their recent ASPI report on Australia’s submarine choice that there is a stronger strategic case for acquiring Japanese submarines than European ones (Option J).


 But the opposite could well be the case—having Japanese submarines could markedly reduce our strategic flexibility in prospective future scenarios. In the uncertain strategic environment that exists in the region at present, Australia should hedge its bets and avoid a regional solution that has strategic ‘strings attached’.

Andrew and Ben acknowledge there are ‘strings attached’ with Option J, but they don’t look sufficiently far ahead at what the region might look like in 10–30 years’ time when the new submarines will be in service.

They take an essentially short-term view of the regional security environment. They acknowledge that American power is declining in relative terms but then don’t project forward to where that trend might lead. The more you look out to the longer term, the greater are the ‘strings’ attached to Option J.

As I have argued elsewhere, there are four main ‘stumbling blocks’ to reaching a way ahead with the submarine program: Australia’s unique requirement for a ‘big’ conventional submarine; the downside of locking ourselves into American systems; the difficulties in making an accurate assessment of the future strategic environment; and trends in submarine detection that may make it more difficult for Australia to deploy submarines into East Asian waters.

The geopolitics of the region are changing faster than most anticipated. Credible scenarios for the longer term must include a significant decline in American power and influence as well as conflict between China and Japan in which Australia would not take sides. In these regional circumstances, Option J would involve some loss of long-term strategic independence for Australia. The European options bring with them longer-term strategic flexibility.

Japan is an inherently insecure country. In the current strategic environment a closer security relationship between Australia and Japan is more to the benefit of Japan than it is for Australia. Placing too much emphasis on a strategic relationship with Japan suggests a strategic inferiority complex on the part of Australia. That’s not to say we shouldn’t have a security relationship with Japan, it’s only to say that we need to recognise that Japan is searching for friends for support in its fractious relationship with China. It’s not a matter of choosing sides in Northeast Asia as Andrew and Ben suggest—it’s more a matter of being able to maintain even-handed neutrality.

The argument in the ASPI report that Japan may replace China as Australia’s major trading partner is also open to question. China is also a buyer of Australia’s LNG. The report cited in the ASPI report originates from early 2014 before the global collapse in the LNG market. Latest indications are that Japan’s LNG demand is slowing as nuclear power stations come back on line under the Abe administration.

The last issue is the need to anticipate future developments in submarine detection systems and signal processing. The seas are becoming more transparent. Over the life of the new submarine, it may become impossible for Australia to deploy submarines covertly through the northern archipelagos and into the East Asian seas. Indonesia attaches considerable importance to monitoring naval movements through its archipelago but in the past, oceanographic conditions in its straits, such as Lombok and Makassar, have been too noisy for fixed underwater sonar arrays to detect submarine movements. However, this situation could well change as developments in signal processing make fixed arrays more effective.

Even if we wanted to deploy submarines to East Asia in 25 years’ time, we may not be able to do so with assured secrecy. If this were the case, then a smaller European submarine could well meet Australia’s requirements with a saving of billions of dollars to the Defence budget.

By Sam Bateman, professorial research fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS)

This article was originally published by The strategist. Read the original story here. 

UOW academics exercise academic freedom by providing expert commentary, opinion and analysis on a range of ongoing social issues and current affairs. This expert commentary reflects the views of those individual academics and does not necessarily reflect the views or policy positions of the University of Wollongong.

Media Contacts for this article

UOW Media Office

You may also be interested in

Squid fishing grew by 68% in just three years, raising fears the industry is out of control
World experts gather to discuss strategies for a sustainable and equitable blue economy
Could the Nationals’ refusal to support a Voice to Parliament derail the referendum?
Services & Help
  • Current students
  • Library
  • Information technology
  • Accommodation
  • Security & safety
  • Pool, gym & retail
News, Media & Events
  • Media Centre
  • The Stand
  • Alumni Magazine
  • Research news
  • Events
  • Find an expert
Faculties
  • Arts, Social Sciences & Humanities
  • Business & Law
  • Engineering & Information Sciences
  • Science, Medicine & Health
Administration
  • Graduation
  • Environment
  • Policy directory
  • Learning and teaching
  • Financial Services
  • Access to information
  • Jobs
UOW Entities
  • Innovation Campus
  • UOW College Australia
  • UOW College Hong Kong
  • UOW in Dubai
  • UOW Global Enterprises
  • UOW Malaysia KDU
  • UOW Pulse
Connect with us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Conversation
  • Contact us
  • Feedback
  • Give to UOW

Northfields Ave Wollongong,  NSW 2522  Australia 
Phone: 1300 367 869 
International: +61 2 4221 3218 
Switchboard: +61 2 4221 3555

  • NUW Alliance: Smarter Solutions for NSW
  • University Global Partnership Network (UGPN)
  • Reconciliation Australia
  • AWEI LGBTQ inclusion awards logo

Aboriginal flag Torres Strait Islander flag

On the lands that we study, we walk, and we live, we acknowledge and respect the traditional custodians and cultural knowledge holders of these lands.

Copyright © 2023 University of Wollongong
CRICOS Provider No: 00102E | TEQSA Provider ID: PRV12062 | ABN: 61 060 567 686
Copyright & disclaimer | Privacy & cookie usage | Web Accessibility Statement

Close