WTO,
China and Other Asian Economies
Xian
Jiaotong University, 25-26 June 2005
Tran
Van Hoa recently attended the International
Conference on the WTO, China and the Asian Economies
taking place at the Xian Jiaotong University in Xian which lies in the
heart of the development high-priority Western China region. The
Conference
was sponsored by Washington University in Seattle (USA), the European
Institute
based at Fudan University in Shanghai, and the XJTU. More than 40
participants
from different parts of China, Korea, Japan, India, Taiwan, Germany,
the US,
Malaysia,
and Australia contributed to the presentation of their major research
reports
and lively discussions. The topics in 24 papers cover trade theory and
policy, investment, exports, effects of economic policy reform and
regional and global
shocks, development and growth, and economic integration. The
Conference
proceedings were televised by Shanxi (Xian) TV.
In
the photo below taken at the Conference Opening Ceremony at the Xian
Jiaotong
University Conference Center are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van
Hoa,
Ms Ap Ying Gao (Shanxi TV Executive), and Prof Zongxian Feng, the Local
Conference
Organiser.
15th International
Input-Output Association
Conference
Renmin University of China,
Beijing,
28 June-1 July 2005
During 28-29 June 2005, Tran
Van
Hoa also attended, as an IIOA delegate invited by the Local Organiser,
the
15th Interntional Conference of the Input
Output Association that took place at Run
Run Shaw Conference Center at the Renmin University of China in
Beijing.
The Conference was highly significant in that it was the first ever
IIOA
conference taking place in China. It was organised by the Local
Organiser,
Prof Yanyun Zhao, Director, Center for Applied Statistics at RUC, with
the
support
from the RUC, China National Bureau of Statistics, and several other
national
oganisations.
More than 200 experts including 80 from outside China participated in
the Conference. Topics for presentation in plenary session and
contributed paper sessions
and
discussion include recent advances and applications in I/O analysis at
both the regional and national level.
At the opening plenary session, Tran
Van
Hoa raised the issue of neglect or oversight by IO experts in their
general review on the household
(or non-market as opposite to the usual market) production
sector. This sector accounts,
by international economists' calculations, for a greater GDP than the
Kuznets-type
GDP as reported routinely by national and international statistical
bureaux
worldwide. A book on major advances in the household sector has been
edited by
Tran Van Hoa and published by Ashgate Publishing, and it will appear in
the UK in August 2005.
In the photo below taken in
front
of the School of Statistics Building at Renmin University of China are,
from left to right, Prof Qiyun Liu (IIOA Vice President, China, and
RUC), Prof Yanyun Zhao (IIOA
Conference
Local Organiser and RUC), Ms Faye Duchin (IIOA President), and Prof
Tran Van Hoa,
Development and Co-operation in
the Mekong River Economies:
Issues
and Prospects
An AusAID-funded International
Workshop
Hanoi 29-30 March 2005, NATI,
Vietnam
Ministry of Trade
An important
international
workshop with the theme Impact of
the WTO and Regional Economic Integration on Development and Trade in
the
Mekong River Subregion Economies recently took place at the
National
Advanced Training Insitute (NATI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi.
Facilitated
by Prof Tran Van Hoa (Department of Economics, and Director, ASEAN+3
and
Vietnam Focus Research Program, University of Wollongong,
Australia), funded
by AusAID, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,
locally organised by the NATI (Rector, Dr Pham Quang
Thao), and co-sponsored
by Prof Peter Sheehan, Director, the Centre for Strategic Economic
Studies,
Victoria University of Technology (Melbourne, Australia), the workshop
attractedan unusually large
number (more than 140
participants,
see photo below) of senior experts, government officials and
business
executives from Vietnam and
overseas. Vietnam
Vice Minister of Trade, H.E. Tran Duc Minh, officially opened the
workshop
and gave a keynote address on major issues and important aspects of the
workshop theme from Vietnam's perspective. Other workshop speakers on
the
national, regional and global focus issues include Prof Yanyun
Zhao,
Renmin University of China in Beijing, Prof Charles Harvie
(Department
of Economics and Director, the SME Research Centre, University of
Wollongong),
Prof Euamporn Tasarika (Thammasat University, Thailand), and Prof Tran
Van Hoa.
Major issues for presentation and discussion were focused on the
turbulent
history of the economies in the GMS, their current economic and trade
development
nationally and within the framework of the WTO and regional economic
integration,
and the need for their co-operation to enhance their mutually important
economic, commerce and political benefits in the medium and long term.
The workshop papers and discussion were widely reported in the English
(eg, Viet Nam News and
Vietnam
Investment Review, 30 March 2005) and Vietnamese mass media.
In the photo below, taken in the NATI auditorium at the opening
ceremony
of the workshop, are, from left to right, Prof Yanyun Zhao (P.R.
China),
Prof Charles Harvie (Britain), Prof Euamporn Tasarika (Thailand), H.E.
Tran Duc Minh, Vietnam Vice Minister of Trade, Prof Tran Van Hoa
(Australia),
and Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, NATI, MOT, Vietnam).
In the photo below taken at the workshop during discussion are Prof
Tran Van Hoa (left) and Mr
Phanh Vilaysom, Economic and Commercial Counsellor at the
Embassy
of the Lao People Democratic Republic (PDR).
Below is a photo of some of the participants, coming
from
the major ministries, national and international agencies, and national
and transnational companies in Vietnam, attending the Workshop.
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement:
Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade and Investment
10 November 2004, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Hanoi
With the slow progress and still extensive disagreements on the Doha
agenda and other WTO contentious issues, bilateral
and plurilateral FTA and Closer Economic Relation (CER) Framework
have proliferated especially in the Asian region in recent years.
Within
the economic foundation of the WTO objectives which is based
essentially
on a perfectly
competitive
economic model where economic and other benefits are gained by
unhindered
access to and movement of output and factors of production across
markets (seeTran
Van Hoa's Competition Policy and Global Competitiveness in Major Asian
Economies, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2003), these FTAs include
the
important AFTA, ASEAN+3, Japan-Singapore, Australia-US,
Australia-Thailand,
and the proposed ASEAN+5, ASEAN+India and Australia-China. Benefits of
these FTAs have so far been restricted to useful academic and political
debates and dialogues on FTAs, plausible expectations from FTAs and CER
between FTA members. Empirical support for the FTA-focussed
comprehensive (that is, trade in goods, services, investment,
competition
and CER) benefits of FTAs have not been adequately dealt with,
especially
with existing inadequate methodologies with limited structure, scope
and
time spectrum such as the
CGE/GTAP,
gravity theory, and panel regression which are being used routinely by
numerous national and international organisations including the IMF,
the
WTO and UNCTAD.
A new methodology with
substantial
and realistic improvements on economic structure, scope in trade,
time-series
data consistency and superior estimation and impact features has been
proposed
in a major international linkage research project to study an important
regional economic and trade issue in Asia: the
Impact of ASEAN+3 FTA on Australia-Vietnam Trade. Funded
by the Australian Government Research Council (ARC) for the period
2004-07,
the project is managed by
Prof
Tran Van Hoa (the Chief Investigator) and with the collaboration of the
Director-General (the Industry Partner Investigator), Prof Nguyen Van
Lich,
of Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), a division of Vietnam
Ministry
of Trade. VIT-funds matching ARC
grant were provided by Vietnam Ministry of Trade under the sponsorship
of HE Le Danh Vinh, Vice Minister of Trade. Substantive
empirical
outcomes from the project are expected to provide timely, robust and
reliable
policy recommendations to both the governments and trade agencies in
Australia
and Vietnam to enhance their trade and economic well-being and regional
cooperation and, as a result, stability and security in the region.
Applications
of the methodology to other FTAs such as the recent Australia-US and
Australia-Thailand
and the proposed ASEAN+India and Australia-China are also contemplated.
In the photo below taken at the Signing Ceremony of the ARC Linkage
Project at the Vietnam Institute for Trade's conference centre at
its headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen, Hanoi, are from left to right, Ms Nguyen
Thi Nga (VIT Interpreter), Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (VIT
Director-General),
H.E. Le Danh Vinh (Vietnam Vice-Minister for Trade), H.E. Joe Thwaites
(Australian Ambassador to Vietnam), and Prof Tran Van Hoa. The Signing
Ceremony was nationally televised and reported in the radio and print
media.
What's New in Sex Discrimination and Economic Policy
4 November 2004
Department of Economics, University of Wollongong
Pru Goward,
Australia's
Federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner from the Human Rights and Equal
Opportunity Commission, visited the
University of Wollongong on
4 November 2004 to deliver the 2004 Economic and Social Policy Lecture.
The lecture is a major annual event organised by the Department of
Economics
with a focus on significant public policy issues and nationally
prominent
speakers. Pru's lecture was on Work
and Family Issues in the new John Howard Federal Government's Agenda
and covered recent improvements or successes in women's participation
in
the economy's workforce. The lecture was given at the same time Tran
Van Hoa completed his new bookAdvances
in Household Economics, Consumer Behaviour and Economic Policy
(Ashgate
Publishing Ltd, London, 2004, in press) in which
internationally
well-known economists, working and writing on household production,
unpaid
work, satellite accounts, their important measurements, and use of new
consumer demand systems and modelling for social security and welfare
policy
analysis, contribute their latest research to promote further the
growing
importance and acceptance of the household sector productivity in the
economy
and especially women's worth to society.
In the photo below taken at a post-lecture dinner at
the
University Food Re-thought Restaurant are
the Hon Sharon Bird, new Federal MP for Cunningham and
Prof Tran Van Hoa.
Second Italy-China International Conference on
Economic and Social Statistics
25 October 2004
University of Florence, Italy
As part of their on-going collaborative work in economic
and statistical research within the Asia-Europe
linkage framework, the University of Florence (UNIFI) in Italy
and
the Renmin University of China (RUC) in Beijing, China, jointly
held
their 2nd interntional conference at the Department of Statistics (G.
Parenti)
Centre on the UNIFI campus on 25 October 2004 (the first Italy-China
international
conference was held in Guangdong in December 2002). Co-ordinated
by Profs Guido Ferrari of UNIFI and Yanyun Zhao of RUC and with the
collaboration
of Prof Tran Van Hoa (University of Wollongong, Australia), the
conference had the participation of more than 20 academics and
experts
from major cities in Italy, four major provinces in China and
high-ranking
universities in Australia. The topics of discussion are wide-ranging
(16
papers were presented) and cover both theoretical and empirical aspects
of: ASEAN+3 free trade
agreement
and its impact on Asia-EU trade, growth and economic relations;
computable
regional equilibrium modelling; R&D, technology innovation,
competitiveness,
technology efficieny and optimal expenditure size on national, regional
and sectoral growth in China; administrative data organization,
teaching
supply analysis and university education evaluation in Italy; use of
equivalence
scales in separated (divorced) family child support; and firm
size
distribution in a socialist market economy (such as China and Vietnam).
The conference was also a major event from a
bilateral
(Italy-China) perspective that was organised to help, through the
efforts
of EU and Asia economic and statistical academics and experts, to
strengthen
the broader Asia-EU link and collaboration scheme vigorously supported
by the European Commission
and
the Government of China and institutions in Asia and Oceania.
UNIFI,
RUC and the National Economics University in Vietnam are currently
involved
in a major EC- AsiaLink project proposal to support and promote further
this scheme for mutual benefits academically and economically within
the
context of ASEM long-term objectives.
In the photo below
taken at
the opening of the conference are, from left to right, Prof
Sandro
Viviani (UNIFI), Dr Lorella Palla (Head, UNIFI International Relations
Office), Mr Li Runfu (Consul General of China in Florence), Prof Guido
Ferrari (UNIFI), Prof Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and Prof Yanyun Zhao (RUC).
In the photo below taken on the terrace at the Pitti
Palace Hotel for the Conference Farewell Dinner, hosted by
Mr Paolo
del Bianco, President of the Fondazione
Romualdo del Bianco of Florence (a non-profit agency with international
social mission objectives), are, from left to right, Prof
Guido Ferrari, Mr Paolo del Bianco, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Yanyun
Zhao.
4th Asia-Pacific Economic Forum International
Conference
Asian and Global Economies:
Issues of Competitiveness and Growth
5-7 September 2004
Renmin University of China, Beijing
The Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) held, with the financial
support
of China Department of Education, its 4th International Conference at
the
Renmin (People) University of China in Beijing during 5-7 September
2004.
The local organiser was Prof Yanyun Zhao, Head of the Department of
Statisitics
at RUC and 2004 APEF President.
Founded in 2001 at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea,
the APEF which is a new economics society has a wide-ranging high-level
membership from a global academic and government expert community
consisting
of major countries in Asia (eg, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan,
Korea,
Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam), the European Union (France,
Italy),
the Middle East (Iran), North America (the US and Canada) and Oceania
(Australia
and New Zealand). The focus of interest, research and dissemination of
substantive findings of the APEF is economic development and growth,
trade
and investment, competitiveness, free trade agreements, international
economic
integration and relations, and new Asian regionalism.
Participants at the APEF 4 Conference include academics,
government
and Asian Development Bank economists and other experts from the
powerful East Asia 3 group, Australia, Taiwan, and Iran. Topics
presented
and discussed at the Conference cover competitiveness and trade and
investment
in East Asia, China's long-term growth, Asian Development Bank and
other
ODA assistance, regional monetary policy reform, and current issues of
development in the North-East, West and South-West and Pearl River
Regions
in China. The Conference organisers are planning to publish the
presented
papers in a book for wider dissemination.
In the group photo below taken in the Run Run Shaw Room at the Yi Fu
Conference Centre at Renmin University of China are, from left and from
7th to 13th places, Prof Fukunari Kimura (Keio University, Japan), Prof
Chung Mo Koo (KNU), the Conference Organiser, Prof Yanyun Zhao (RUC),
Prof
Tran Van Hoa, Prof Guirong Li (RUC), Prof Hyun Hoon Lee (KNU), Prof
Chen
Min Hsu (Taiwan National University), and some of the participants.
Globalisation Gains and Losses:
Lord Meghnad Desai
University of Wollongong, 23 August 2004
Prof Meghnad Desai of the London School of Economics and a life
peer of St Clement Danes (in London in the vicinity of the LSE) and a
member
of England's House of Lords visited Wollongong University
recently
to give a seminar on New
Anti-Capitalist
Movement, Civil Society and Global Finance. Born in Baroda,
India,
and obtained a Ph D in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in
the US in 1964, Prof Lord Desai who was a strong activist in the
British
academia in the late 1960s, has been a staff-member of the LSE since
the
early 1970s, and Founding
Director,
Centre for the Study of Global Governance also at the LSE since
1992. A strong advocate of globalisation which, he maintains, would do
the developing world especially in Asia a great deal of good even
though
in the initial stages, economic pains and social upheavals may have to
be endured by the people of that world. A good colleague of Tran Van
Hoa
over three decades (see
2000
Activity below at the LSE - with Ann Petitfor, Director Jubilee 2000,
and
Lord Desai), Lord Desai also expresses to have a closer interest
in major transition Asian economies such as Vietnam and China whose
political
regimes had attracted his research and writing (including Marx's
Revenge: the Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism
(Verso, 2002) over the past 30 years and whose growing eocnomic and
trade
rivalry with another (South) Asian giant, India, is the current focus
of
many policy-makers in the region.
In the photo below taken in
the Faculty of Arts at the University of Wollongong during his visit
are,
from left to right, Prof Leone Lyons, Deputy Diretor of CAPSTRANS, Prof
Lord Meghnad Desai and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
Korea and the World Economy in 2004
3-4 July 2004, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea
Early in July
2004,
Tran Van Hoa attended the third conference in the conference
series Korea
and the World Economy,taking
place on 3-4 July 2004 at Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea,to
deliver a paper on Korea's
Trade,Growth
of Trade and the World Economies in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade
Agreement.
He also acted as a discussant in a Plenary Session Economic
Cooperation in North-East Asia organsied by the Bank of Korea.
The
Conference was organised by the Association of the Korean Economic
Studies
(AKES), Korea Development Institute and the Research Center for
International
Economics (RCIE) at the University of Washington, USA. More than 40
economists
from China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the US, Canada, Belgium,
Italy,
Turkey, Russia, India and Australia participated in the Conference.
Topics
of interest and discussion cover prominently the
Korean economy at the crossroads, East and North East Asia economic
integration,
trade liberalisation, and industrial competitiveness.
In the photo below taken in the 600 Anniversary
Memorial
Hall at Sungkyunkwan University at the end of the Conference are, from
left to right, Prof H H Lee (Kangwon National University, Korea),
Prof Charles Harvie (Director, Hunter Valley Research Foundation,
Australia),
Prof Chung Mo Koo (Kangwon National University), Prof Jong Won Lee
(President,
AKES), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Australia), and Prof Karyiu Wong (RCIE, USA).
Contemporary Modelling Economic and Financial Policy:
A European Union Perspective
30 June-2 July 2004, Universite de Paris I,
Pantheon-Sorbonne
Tran Van Hoa participated in
the EcoMod 2004 International
Conference on Policy Modelling that took place on 30 June-2 July
2004 at France's prestigious university, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Universite
de Paris I, to present his current modelling policy research work on
the Impact
of the ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement on Asia-Europe Trade and Economic
Relations:
A New Modelling Approach. The Conference was organised by the
EcoMod
Network and sponsored by France's Prime Minister Centre d'Etudes
Prospectives
et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), Universite de Paris I,
Pantheon-Sorbonne,
and Hendyplan. While at the Conference, Tran Van Hoa also chaired
a Session
on Trade Issues.
The keynote addresses and
papers
delivered at the Conference represent some of the state-of-the-art
research
and commissioned activities by economic and financial experts on
major issues, aspects and policy modelling methodologial advances in
trade,
growth, monetary policy, labour, competition and economic relations
in
the EU and in other countries that have relations with the EU.
Attending
the Conference were over 200 academics, businesspeople, government
officials
and advisers, and delegates from the European Commission, the European
Central Bank, the US International Trade Commission, and coming from
the
countries in the EU, the
Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania, and
the UK, the US, and Russia.
In the photo below taken in the Sorbonne Foyer on the opening day at
the Conference are, from left to right, Lionel Fontaigne (Director,
CEPII,
Professor, Universite de Paris I, and EcoMod 2004 Program Committee
Member),
Beatrice Poster ( Executive Administrative, CEPII), and Tran Van Hoa.
WTO, China and Other Asian Economies:
Major Regional Issues
Renmin University of China, Beijing, 18-19 June 2004
An Interntional Conference was recently jointly
organised
by the Research Center for International Economics (Director: Prof
Karyiu
Wong) at Washington University (Seattle, USA), East-West Center
(Hawaii,
USA), and the Business School, Renmin University of China, with a focus
on the theme The WTO, China
and
the Asian Economies II. The Conference took place at the Yi Fu
Conference
Center on RUC campus during 18-19 June 2004 with the
participation
of over 60 experts from China, the US, the European Union,
Australia and several other universities and institutitions in
Asia.
At the Conference, Tran Van Hoa, representing Australia,
presented
a paper on Asian Free Trade
Agreements and their Impact on China's Trade and New Economic
Relations and
discussed a paper on China's WTO Entry and its
Consequences for India's Trade.
Since its WTO
membership
in 2001, China has gone on to be one of the world's main economic
powers
with growing trade and political influence beyond the Asian region. It
is even poised to take over Japan soon in terms of the growth of its
GDP.
While China has achieved admirable successes in growth, trade and
economic
relations, it has also become an object of rivalry with its East Asia
neighbours
and an object of fear from its giant global trade competitors such as
the
South Asia newcomer, India. At the Conference, this issue and other
important
aspects of China's growing trade and economic power were discussed and
widely disseminated in the national mass media. The third
international
conference on the same theme is being planned for 2005, and the
conference
host is Xian Giaotong
University
in West China.
In the photo
below, taken at the RUC Yi Fu Conference Center, are, from left to
right,
Prof Feng Zongxian (Xian Giaotong University and Organiser for 2005 WTO
and China III Conference), Prof Karyiu Wong (Director, RCIE, University
of Washington, USA) and Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam Focus and
ASEAN+3 Research Program, Wollongong University, Australia).
In the group photo taken in front of the RUC Yi Fu
Conference
Center at the end of the Conference on WTO,
China and the Asian Economies,
are Tran Van Hoa (13th place, standing) and some local and
international
participants.
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement
and Its Impact on Australia-China Trade:
Who Gains and Who Loses?
Renmin University of China, Beijing, 17 June 2004
With the slow progress of the WTO negotiations (due
chiefly
to several yet unresolvable issues on trade protection and subsidies by
WTO members) and the still non-WTO membership of many LDCs, the
proliferation
of regional free trade agreeements (FTAs) and closer economic relations
(CER) especially in Asia in order to liberalise trade and promote
growth
is being vigorously supported by governments and the development is
amply
justified. One of these important recent FTAs is the ASEAN+3 (10 ASEAN
countries plus China, Japan and Korea). The implications of this
ASEAN+3
FTA on such trading countries in the region as Australia and China are
far-reaching, in our view, for their national interests. An
important
project, carried out by Wollongong University (Prof Tran Van Hoa) and
the
Renmin University of China in Beijing (Prof Yanyun Zhao), is supported
during 2004 byAustralia's
Department
of Education, Science and Training (DEST) in
its program China Higher Education Strategic Initiatives (CHESI)
to investigate ASEAN+3 and Australia-China major economic and trade
issues
for discussion, debates and possible policy input by experts and
policy-makers
in both countries.
The first
workshop
to report on the project's research findings by UOW and RUC economic
and
trade experts was organised by Prof Zhao at the China
Centre for Applied Statistics Research on the RUC campus on 17
June
2004 where Tran Van Hoa and other Chinese experts presented and
discussed
their progress work. Participants in the workshop also included
postgraduate
students, postdoctoral fellows and academics from the RUC and other
Chinese
universities.
In the photo below, taken at the end of the workshop
in
the School of Statistics, RUC, are some participants including, from
left
to right, Prof Guirong Li (School of FInance, RUC, 6th place), Prof
Yanyun
Zhao (RUC, 8th place), and Prof Tran Van Hoa (9th place).
GLOBALISATION: DEFINITION AND FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES
May 2004
Globalisation is perhaps one of the most frequently
quoted
words or reverently cited concepts in all areas of contemporary hard,
soft
or metaphysical sciences (eg, engineering, economics, humanities,
politics,
business, management, governance, religion, sociology, philosophy, to
name
a few), but it remains the most misunderstood or mis-interpreted at all
levels, layman or expert, of enquiry. Every one of the 2822 acdemic
papers
and 589 books published in 1998 alone for example has its own
definition
(see
www.globalisationguide.org/01.html).
A quick browse of current writings or debates on globalisation will
however
reveal that most publications and discussions focus essentially on what
globalisation does or generates rather than on what it truly is.
Globalisation occurs (or is) when human activities
(physical
and non-physical), originated from one state, move to other dependent
(satellite)
or independent (sovereign) states. These activities may be in one of
the
areas mentioned above. A cause of this movement is the superiority (or
comparative advantages, competitiveness, or novelty) of the tools
(goods),
the ideas (services), finance (capital availability) or the armed
forces
of a state. The outcome of this globalisation can be either better (unification
of warring states, improved trade and living standards, broadened
enlightenment
or closer economic relations), or
for worse [destruction of a state (forced and invited
occupation),
its infrastructure, activities, resources (deforestation, environment
degradation,
or terrorist attacks) or its culture (religion, family, custom or
ages-old
traditions)].
With this definition, globalisation could be
regarded
as being existent with the first human cross-continetal migration of
the
world, followed or manisfested further by the occupation or expansion
or
the international trade of the desert kingdoms in the Middle East (the
cradle of civilisation), the rise and fall of the Greek and Roman
empires,
the global spread of Christianity, Buddism or Islam or more recent
diverse
religions, the establishment of the Silk Road, the conquests of the
Gengis
Khan families, the adventures of Marco Polo, the colonial empires of
major
European countries in America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the
continental
or world wars of the past, the feared hegemonism of communism after the
Second World War and socialism, the setting-up of the League of
Nations,
the United Nations, the GATT and GATS, the WTO, and the increasing
reach
and influence of capitalism and its coporates. The
current promotion of globalisation by its advocates is usually based on
the utilisation of international competitiveness or an advancement of
closer
economic relations. The anti-globalisation supporters, while grudgingly
admitting the process of globalisation, emphasise on the other hand the
lack of equity or fairness (who gains most and who loses most) or the
social
concerns of globalisation. Like
all other things in life, an equilibrium (or balance) of gains (output
growth, improved living standard, welfare and security) and losses
(rights
and wrongs, suitability and unsuitablity, transgenerational negatives
and
pluses) of globalisation (or all other human activities or decisions)
must
be considered and achieved for optimal outcomes and less wasteful
confrontations
for all stakeholders. Curiously,
efficiency and equity are the two main concerns of mainstream
economics
and the real base for research, policy advice and public debates by
respectable
economists. See also Tran Van
Hoa and C Harvie (eds) New Asian Regionalism: Responses to
Globalisation
and Crises, London: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2003, cover in Item 9 February
2004 below.
ACADEMIC WRITERS AND INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHERS:
IMPORTANT LINK
2 March 2004
A strong linkage between the 'research and write'
academics
and reputable international publishers is crucial for an efficient
public-benefits
dissemination worldwide of new knowledge and findings of both a basic
and
applied/policy kind in all scientific endeavours. To maintain this
linkage,
Edward and Sandy Elgar of Edward
Elgar Publishers in the UK have regularly visited the authors
and
editors of EE books around the world to discuss and monitor trends and
development of new research and ideas in the writing academic
community.
More than five staff members in the Economics Department at Wollongong
University are authors and editors of numerous EE books in the past few
years. In March 2004, while Edward and Sandy were unable to visit
the University of Wollongong, their eldest daughter,Catherine
Elgar, was able to visit the campus for the first time to
maintain her publishing family's long-established tradition.
In the photo below taken in the Department of Economics during
Catherine's
hectic visit and meetings with academics at the University of
Wollognong
are (from left) Prof Ann Hodgkinson (Head of the School of
Economics and Information Systems), Catherine Elgar (Edward Elgar, UK)
and Prof Tran Van Hoa (who, in addition to other books published with
Macmillan,
UK, has published five books with EE in the past four
years).
AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM DIPLOMATIC, ECONOMIC AND TRADE
RELATIONS:
30 YEARS OF BRIDGING DIVIDES
14 February 2004, Stamford Plaza Hotel, Sydney
On the Valentine Day 2004, the Director of the ASEAN
and
Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of Wollongong (Prof
Tran
Van Hoa) attended an official function at the Stamford Plaza Hotel,
Double
Bay, organised by the Vietnam Consul General in New South Wales (Mr
Nguyen
Van Tho) to honour the visit by Vietnam's new Foreign Minister, H E
Nguyen
Di Nien, to Sydney. The visit by Mr Nien (and his wife, Mrs Dung) was
significant
since he was one of Vietnam's first officials visiting Australia in as
early as 1973 to establish official relations between the two
countries.
Over the 30 years or so since, these bilateral relations have expanded
considerably in all aspects: diplomatic, cultural, aid, health,
agriculture,
economic and trade (to $2.8 billion in 2002) to name a few, bringing in
a better mutual understanding and cooperation. As the new head of
Vietnam's foreign affairs, Mr Nien also is anxious to promote and
expand
these relations in the years to come not only with assistance from the
government, NGOs, transnational corporations and individual investors
from
Australia but also from the 200,000 plus Vietnamese Australians whose
affinity
with Vietnam is still emotionally strong, whose intellectual and
commercial
successes in their adopted country are high (as is the case with
Vietnamese
Americans in the US), and whose experience of and exposure to the two
diverse
East and West cultures can bring good relations and outcomes.
At the function, it was also expressed that, with
these
expanding relations and its abundance of natural, physical and human
resources,
its dedication at all society levels to improve the economic and social
conditions, and its recent economic achievements even during the
devastating
Asia crisis of 1997-2002 and the 2003 SARS and 2004 avian flu
outbreaks,
Vietnam will surely stand proud of its future economic development and
social progress and its high standing in the regional and
international
community.
In the
photo
below taken at the Stamford Plaza Hotel function welcoming Vietnam
Foreign
Minister, are (from left), the Hon. Nguyen Van Tho (Vietnam Consul
General
in Sydney), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Mrs Dung, H E Nguyen Di Nien (Vietnam
Foreign
Minister), Mrs Tran Thi Lai (Vina World Travel) and H E Le Xuan Lieu,
Vietnam
Ambassador to Australia.
WHAT DO ASIAN ECONOMIES HAVE TO DO
WHEN FACING
REGIONAL CRISES AND RELENTLESS GLOBALISATION?
9 February 2004
Crises seem to beset most of us at all levels:
personal,
community, national, global and transgenerational. The once 'high
growth
miracle' economies of the East and South East Asia are not an exception
to this seemingly universal rule notably in recent years. What caused
the
damaging economic and financial crises or meltdown in these Asian
economies
in the late 1990s and early 2000s? How the crisis economies have
responded
to these crises? Have their adopted or imposed-on rescue policies been
effective in alleviating the local and national problems arising from
the
crises and in promoting quick recovery and growth? And what are
available
options they have to develop and take to avoid or deal with possible
future
turmoils of similar magnitude? These are some of the issues and
questions
economists in major Asian countries have been searching answers and
solutions
for in recent times.
A new and timely book New
Asian Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises [edited
by Tran Van Hoa and Charles Harvie, Palgrave-Macmillan, 2003 (see
below)],
is a collection of important studies by a select group of Asian and
Oceanian
economists exploring and analysing the strong emergence of Asian
regionalisms
and economic integration in the region in recent times to deal with the
aftermath of the recent crises, the relentless marching of
globalisation,
and the increasing emphasis on and penetration of international
competitiveness
in all economies, developed and developing. A product of an
international
conference organised by the executives of the newly formed APEF (Asia
Pacific
Economic Forum) at the University of Wollongong (Australia) in 2002,
the
book provides a wealth of information and ideas on the development of
this
new Asian regionalism and how it can be used by economic policy makers
and shakers to steer Asian crisis economies towards quick recovery,
strong
growth and more social and political stability, and increasing living
standards
for all peoples in the region in the near future.
ASIA CRISIS AND
RECOVERY
AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
FOR ASIA'S FUTURE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea
8-10 December 2003
Impact and long-term implications as well as emerging challenges and
opportunities of Asia's past and current crises and recoveries
were
the themes of the Asia
Crisis V International Conference taking place on campus at the
Kangwon National University (KNU) in Chunchon, Korea, during 8-10
December 2003. The Conference was jointly organised and sponsored
by the KNU (Institute of Industrial Research), the University of
Washington
in Seattle (USA) (Research Center on International Economics), the
University
of Tokyo (Japan) (Center of International Research on the Japanese
Economy),
the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) in Seoul,
and the Taiwan National University (Faculty of Economics). Attending
the
Conference were academics, bankers, business people, government
officials,
senior executives and students from top corporations and
major
institutions and universities in Korea, North East and South East Asia,
and Oceania. Representing Australia was Prof Tran Van Hoa who also
delivered
a paper on ASEAN+3 free trade
agreement and post-crisis challenges and prospects for trade and
economic
policy between the 10 ASEAN economies and the East Asia 3
(China,
Japan and Korea) in the medium and long terms. He also chaired a
conference
session on Predicting and
Preventing
Crises. The concept of setting up an Asia
Pacific Economic Association was raised at the Conference.
The next Asia Crisis conference is scheduled to take place in September
2004 at the University of Tokyo, Japan. The Crisis V conference
organisers
are also planning to publish the conference proceedings in a book for a
wider dissemination of the discussions and findings at the Conference.
In the photo below taken on campus (Faculty of Arts Building) at the
Kangwon National University on the opening day of the Conference were
(from
left) Prof Chung Mo Koo (Local Conference Organiser), Ms Kopea (KNU
Postgraduate
Student, background), Prof Kar Yiu Wong (Conference Organiser,
University
of Washington), Prof Dr Yong Soo Park (President of KNU)
and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
AUSTRALIA AND
VIETNAM'S
ECONOMIC AND TRADE DEVELOPMENT
Hanoi, 4-8 December 2003
During the first week of the 22nd SEA (South East Asia) Games taking
place in Hanoi (30 November-14 December 2003), Tran Van Hoa held
discussions
with senior officials of Vietnam's Ministry of Trade (MOT) on
current
and planned work between MOT and the Vietnam Focus Research Program
(Director:
Tran Van Hoa) at the University of Wollogong. Work for the triennial
2004-2006
includes a number of training workshops for Vietnam government
officials
on Research and Investment
Evaluation at NATI (MOT National Advanced Training Institute)
and
a research project proposal ASEAN+3
Free Trade Agreement and its impact on Australia-Vietnam trade
at
Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT). Dicussions were also carried out on
potential collaborative work between NATI and VIT and VFOC on targeted
areas of interest in the $10 million ODA (Official Development
Assistance)
program on Capacity Building
for Effective Governance recently signed by the Australian and
Vietnamese
Governments to assist Vietnam in its current development process.
In the photo below taken at the
VIT headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen Street in Hanoi, are Prof Dr Dinh Van
Thanh,
Deputy Director General of VIT, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
AUSTRALIA-THAILAND FREE TRADE AGREEMENT:
INTERNATIONAL
COLLABORATIVE WORK
Bangkok, 1-3
December
2003
Prof Tran Van Hoa recently visited Thailand's prestigious
university,
Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, to develop international
collaborative
link and work between it and the University of Wollongong (Australia)
on
aspects and issues including obstacles and opportunities of the Australia-Thailand
free trade agreement (ATFTA) and closer economic relations
signed
by the Prime Ministers of Australia and Thailand during the APEC
Leaders
Meeting in Bangkok in November 2003. Representing Chulalongkorn
University
and being a chief investigator in the proposed collaborative work was
Prof
Suthipand Chirathivat, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, who is
Thailand's
foremost authority on ASEAN, APEC and ASEM issues.
Informally attending the ATFTA discussion and working lunch between
Profs Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and Suthipand Chirathivat (Chula) was their
colleague, H.
E. Dr Kitti Limskul, Thailand's Vice Minister of Finance, who
was
a professor (on leave) at Chulalobngkorn University and one of the 23
founding
members of the ruling party, Thai
Ruk Thai, in Thailand. Prof Tran Van Hoa later visited Dr
Kitti's
office at the Ministry of Finance to discuss further issues related to
major economies in the Asian region in general and to the ATFTA in
particular.
He also visited his networked colleagues at Thammasat
University to explore joint research and training opportunities
between the Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of
Wollongong
and the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University for several
modules of the Greater Mekong
Project (GMP) being
funded by the Thai Government to Vietnam to assist Vietnam's current
economic
development programs.
In the photo below taken on campus at Chulalongkorn University are
(from
left) Prof Suthipand Chirathivat (Dean of Economics, Chulalongkorn
University)
and Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Thailand Vice Minister of Finance, H.
E.
Dr Kitti Limskul.
Also
in the photo below taken on campus at Thammasat University are
Prof Tran Van Hoa (left) and Prof Pranee Nitakorn, Dean, Faculty of
Economics, Thammasat University.
New
Asian Regionalism in Japan
18-19
September 2003, Keio University, Tokyo
Major
important issues and problems of one of Asia's hottest developments at
the highest level of government, namely new
Asian regionalism and its upshoots, free trade agreements, economic
integration
and closer relations, were discussed at
the
3rd
Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) International Conference
(The Conference Theme: New East Asian
Regionalism:
Perspectives from Individual Countries) at
Japan's prestigious private university in Tokyo last week. The APEF was
inaugurated at Kangwon National University in Korea in 2001 and its
Foundation
President-Elect was Tran Van Hoa who held the 2nd APEF International
Conference
at Wollongong University, Australia, in 2002, with assistance from the
Australian Government AusAID agency. The APEF 3 conference was
organised
by Prof Fukunari Kimura, 2003 APEF President-Elect, and hosted by Keio
University and with support from the Japanese Government, and took
place
at Mita Campus. Attending the Conference to give a keynote address was
Prof Young-Ho Kim, President of Yuhan University, Korea, and Korea's
former
Minister for Commerce, who was responsible for vigorously promoting the
new Asian regionalism, ASEAN+3, while in office.
At
the conference, eminent participants and paper authors from eight major
countries in East Asia (China, Japan,
Korea),
South-East Asia (Thailand) and West Asia (Iran), Oceania (Australia and
New Zealand) and the US presented and
discussed
their new applied and analytical research findings of immense
importance
to not only their own countries but also to regional and global
economies
including the major trading blocs in the world. The
topics include new Asian regionalism and its regional and global impact
and costs-benefits, economic development and growth, trade, investment,
East Asia energy cooperation, regional production and distribution
network,
monetary cooperation, development of a North-East Asian Development
Bank,
and economic integration policy. At the
Conference,
Prof Yanyun Zhao of the Renmin University of China in Beijing was
elected
2004 APEF President and, under his chairmanship, the 4th APEF
International
Conference will take place at Renmin University early in July 2004.
Proceedings
of the APEF 3 Conference are to be published in a book.
In the photo taken at the APEF
3
Reception hosted by Keio University on Art Hills in Central Tokyo are
(from
left to right) Lika Tanaka and Satoko Fukaya (Keio Postgraduate
Students),
Prof Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University), Prof Chan-Hyun Sohn (Korea
Institute
for International Economic Policy), Yuya Takahashi (Keio Postgraduate
Student),
Prof Hiro Lee (ICSEAD, Japan), Prof Yanyun Zhao (Renmin University of
China,
Beijing), Profs Huyn-Hoon Lee and Chung-Mo Koo (Kangwon National
University,
Korea), Mitsuyo Ando (Research Associate, Keio University), Dr Komail
Tayyebi
(University of Isfahan, Iran), Prof Fukunari Kimura (Keio University),
Sonya (Lawyer and Australia's Greens Party Candidate), Prof Robert
Scollay
(University of Auckland, New Zealand), Prof Charles Harvie (Hunter
Valley
Research Foundation, Australia), and Prof Kentaro Kawasaki (Toyo
University,
Japan).
In
the photo below taken at the main building at Keio University, Mita
Campus,
are (from left to right) Prof Suthipand Chirathivat (Dean, Faculty of
Economics,
Chulalongkorn University, Thailand), Prof Zongming Tang (Shanghai
Jiaotong
University, China), Lika Tanaka, Prof Chung-Mo Koo, and Prof Robert
Scollay
(PECC Member).
In
the photo below also taken at Keio University, Mita Campus, are Profs
Suthipand
Chirathivat and Tran Van Hoa (2002 APEF Foundation President-Elect).
In
the photo below taken at the Faculty Club at Keio University Mita
Campus
are (from left to right) Prof Yanyun Zhao (Dean, Faculty of Statistics,
Renmin University of China, Beijing), Prof Suthipand Chirathivat, Prof
Fukunari Kimura (Faculty of Economics, Keio University), and Prof
Chung-Mo
Koo.
THE
BBC, THE WTO, THE 2003 CANCUN AGENDA
AND
ECONOMIC AND TRADE PROSPECTS
FOR
VIETNAM AND OTHER ASIAN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
(Summary
of a BBC Interview with Tran Van Hoa
on
11 September 2003)
The
146-member WTO Ministerial Meeting this week in Cancun, Mexico, has to
deal not only with anti-globalisation protesters but also a number of
difficult
post-Doha problems faced by current WTO members and affecting aspiring
WTO members especially those in the agriculturally-based Asian region.
To some analysts, the only Doha goal achieved since 2001 is cheaper
medicines
to LDCs. Other Doha agenda items have not made any signnificant
progress
due to strong protectionist lobbies from some of the world's most
powerful
and economically developed groups. Australia's Trade Minister, Mark
Vaile,
after chairing the Cairns Group also in Cancun claimed that the
international
community faces a moment of choice in Cancun 'We can stick with the
(fair
share) injustices and (trade) distortions of the past or we can embrace
a new pathway of fundamental reform to create fair and competitive
agricultural
commerce across the world'. The emergence in the WTO of a new bloc of
LDCs,
the G21, would, together with the Cairns Group, strengthen the advocacy
for global farm trade reform.
All
this seems to mean that the LDC members (especially those in the mainly
agricultural-exports regions) in the WTO may not gain substantial and
quick
trade and economic benefits from their WTO memberships. A logical
consequence
is that Vietnam, an aspiring WTO member, may see only a slow and small
gain from its WTO membership to be approved in the next two years or
so.
In a study of the impact of China's WTO membership on its economy
delivered
at the Shanghai Giaotong University a few months ago, we pointed out
that,
using a new impact-study method, far superior to the WTO standard tool
of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) in coverage (focusing on both
goods
and services) and in real-life data-consistency, expansion in China's
economic
growth as a result of its WTO membership may not materialise until some
years after its accession. A WTO membership will however benefit LDC
countries
in Asia like Vietnam in other aspects of a modern economic life:
restructuring
of the economy for more efficiency in production and distribution (even
some SOEs or monopolistic businesses have to reform) though perhaps not
in consumption, better adjustment to the WTO requirements and the
international
community's development and progress, better ability to deal with
increasing
globalisation and interntional competitiveness, and global economic
integration.
While the progress of the WTO negotiations has been slow and sometimes
agonising over the years and its improvement appears uncertain, the
emergence
of regional or plurilateral free trade agreements such as the ASEAN+3
(that
is, the 10 ASEAN and China, Japan and Korea) or its subset ASEAN+China
(endorsed in 2001) and other bilateral FTAs and economic integration
may
be good alternatives for LDCs such as Vietnam to focus on in their
development
process.
COMPETITION
POLICY AND LAW AND THEIR FUTURE
IN
AUSTRALIA AND ASIA
10
September 2003
Prof Allan Fels, former
Chairman
of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and
current
Dean, Australia and New Zealand School of Government, University of
Melbourne,
recently visited Wollongong University to deliver the First Economics
Public
Lecture on Competition Policy and its Future.
An ardent advocate for the consumer's interest and corporate fair
trading
and with strong bipartisan support from the Liberal Party and the
Australian
Labor Party and Australian state governments, Prof Fels had presided
over
the feared Australian corporate watchdog over a decade and has gained a
national and international reputation for robustly applying
Australia's
Trade Practices Act without fear or favour.
In
the photo below at a Commerce Faculty reception for Prof Allan Fels are
(from left to right) Profs Allan Fels, Tran Van Hoa (Allan's colleague
and friend over 35 years from their days at the University of Western
Australia
and Monash University) and John Glynn (Dean, Faculty of Commerce,
University
of Wollongong).
Highly
relevant to the First Economics Public Lecture's theme above but with a
focus and emphasis on Asia's economic development and competitiveness
is
the publication by Edward Elgar in the UK
and US, of a new book by Tran
Van Hoa with the title
Competition Policy and Global Competitiveness in Major Asian Economies
(see
photo and review below). The book is the
product
of an APEC training project funded by the
Australian Government AusAID Agency and Wollongong International
Business
Research Institute (IBRI).
Its contents are at the level of the UNCTAD, WTO, APEC and ASEAN and
deal
with the foundation of competition theory and new developments and
implementation
of competition policy and law in major economies in East Asia, South
East
Asia and Oceania. Importantly, a number of chapters of the book
provides
experiences and lessons in competition policy and law from developed
countries
(such as Australia) that have practiced them for reference or use and
also
discusses pitfalls to avoid by developing countries that are adopting
and
developing this policy and law.
ENHANCING
ASIA-EUROPEAN UNION (ASEM) NETWORK
AND
RESEARCH COLLABORATION
June
2003
Serious work on
enhancing
ASEM network and research collaboration has been recently initiated by
Prof Tran Van Hoa during his visits to several prestigious research
institutes
and universities in the European Union during June 2003. The purpose of
the visits was to communicate his recent research findings on ASEAN
free
trade agreement and new Asian regionalism and to start cooperation or
to
strengthen the existing network and association with EU academics and
researchers
who have been working, either individually or on commission from the
European
Commission, on important aspects and major issues in Asia-EU trade,
investment
and international economic relations.
The visited institutes
include
the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) and the
Institute
of Statistics at the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Belgium and
the
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives and d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
of the Prime Minister's Department in France. The university includes
the
University of Florence in Italy. A number of joint research proposals
between
the ASEAN+3 Research Program (Director: Tran Van Hoa) at the University
of Wollongong, Australia, and the Renmin University of China and with
the
collaboration of CORE, CEPII and the University of Florence have also
been
put forward by Tran Van Hoa for institutional consideration and
government
funding support. Notable in the list of proposals are the Impact
of the ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement on Asia-EU Trade in general
and with the Asia 3 (China, Japan and Korea) in particular.
In
the photo below are Prof Guido Ferrari (left), Department of
Statistics,
University of Florence, and an economic consultant to the European
Commission
(Brussels) and Professor Tran Van Hoa.
Vietnam-Australia
Friendship Association Meeting Vietnam Experts
at
the University of Melbourne
22
May 2003
The
Chairman of the Vietnam Australian Friendship Association (a society of
government officials, business people and Vietnamese alumni from
Australia),
Dr Luong Van Ly, recently visited the Melbourhne Institute for Asian
Languages
and Societies (MIALS) at the Sidney Myer Asia Centre at the University
of Melbourne to meet with experts on Vietnam to discuss high-education
collaboration and joint-venture opportunities in Southern Vietnam for
Australian
universities. The visit is part of the program organised by the
Thailand,
Vietnam ad Laos Section of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs
and
Trade (DFAT). Dr Ly who also is Deputy Director of the Department of
Planning
and Investment of the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly
Saigon) in Vietnam led a 25-member government and business delegation
to
Sydney and Melbourne with the aim of promoting further investment by
Australia
in Ho Chi Minh City and to reinforce Southern Vietnam's strong position
for joint-ventures and as a good source of full-fees paying
international
students (currently numbering 4000) to Australia's leading educational
institutions.
Present
for discussion at the meeting at MIALS were Prof Tran Van Hoa
(representing
the Vietnam and ASEAN+3 Research Program of the University of
Wollongong
and currently Visiting Professor to the University of Melbourne) and
other
senior academics and researchers representing several Melbourne
University
departments with interest or work in Vietnam. These include economics,
management, medicine, art, education, psychology, agriculture,
forestry,
law, film, biotechnology, nursing, public health, anthropology, and
engineering.
In
the photo taken at MIALS Meeting Room No. 1 below are, from left to
right,
Ms Ngan Collins (Ph D student in Management), Dr Di Bretherton
(Psychology-Trauma),
Dr Jane Fisher (Post Natal Depression), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Luong Van
Ly, Dr Adam Fforde (Principal Fellow, MIALS), Dr Pip Nicholson (Asian
Law
Centre), Dr Maureen Welch (Asian Education Foundation), Dr Jennifer
Holmgren
(DFAT Executive Desk Officer), and Angela Kerry (Melbourne University).
A
THEORY AND PRACTICE TO DO BETTER FORECASTS
ANYTHING,
ANYTIME AND ANYWHERE
by
Tran Van Hoa
For
millennia, it has been the ambition of mankind, for selfish or
pecuniary
or altruist or noble reasons, to see clearly or predict accurately
things
in the future, near or far. Sometimes, it can do so with a divining
rod,
by looking at the sky or mountains, by resorting to past occurrences,
by
using insider information, or by a forecasting tool known by
statistical
experts as a forecasting model. A forecasting model is simply a logical
causal structure that stipulates that things happening now depend on
things
happening to them in the past, and things that will happen in the
future
depend on things happening to them before that. This forecasting model
consists of the required but unknown forecast itself and its
determinant
factors (variables) and contributing strengths (parameters). The form
of
this forecasting model is usually not known by anyone but determined or
chosen by the expert doing the forecasting. Given a forecasting model,
its variables and parameters, a forecast into the future can then be
made.
The theory of forecasting used universally nowadays involves either
that
all variables and parameters are known (the neo-classical or CGE or AGE
or WTO school) or that all variables are known but their parameters
have
to be estimated from real-life data for realism (the realist or
Keynesian
school) or a mixture of both. The estimation method used here is
usually
the ordinary least-squares (OLS) or maximimum-likelihood (ML) that
provides
best linear unbiased parameters when the model generating them is
correctly
formulated and contains no omitted variable or no measurement
error-in-variables.
The conditions are hardly met in all real-life situations and what we
have
been given in all forecasting studies of this kind are simply biased
and
highly inaccurate parameters and forecasts.
A
new
forecasting approach proposed by Tran Van Hoa provides better forecasts
on the issues arising above. The approach states that, given any
function
in any form linking causally in anyway a forecast (of anything) to its
determining variables, a linear forecasting (function-free) model can
always
be derived (Tran Van Hoa, 1992) and its parameters can always be
obtained
by a new estimation theory (the so-called two-stage hierarchical
information
(2SHI), also known as the improved Stein or empirical Bayes) that
produce
always more accurate or better in-average-squared-errors properties
than
all other existing estimation methods currently in use (see for
example,
Tran Van Hoa, 1985, Tran Van Hoa and Chaturvedi, 1997). Better
forecasts
can then be obtained from these better estimated parameters.
Applications
of the new approach have been carried out over the past 10 years or so
in numerous scholarly and commissioned applied studies involving
economics,
business, energy demand, trade, investment and finance. Improved
accuracy
in forecasting in these studies range from 10 to 150 per cent, an
enormous
achievement that can make or break individual fortunes, expand or
destroy
giant businesses, discredit national and international organisations,
and
change governments. Some studies dealing with this new forecasting
approach
and applications are given in the publications below.
A.V.
Jennings Industries in Vietnam
10
March 2003
A.V. Jennings
Industries
P/L, one of Australia's giant building and construction industries, was
recently introduced to Vietnam by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director, Vietnam
Research Program, University of Wollongong. A.V.Jennings Industries, a
pioneering company in the building and construction sector in Australia
with numerous significant innovations to its credit over its past 78
years
of operation (for example, the display homes concept (1930s), houses as
homes, economies-of-scale and repetition process in construction,
building
plus trades, fixed fees for building contracts), was represented by its
former Chairman and Managing Director, Vic Jennings, and his wife
Margaret,
who visited Vietnam for the first time with the purpose of fact-finding
and sharing the company's experiences in buillding and construction
with
academics, experts and government officials in Vietnam. Vic gave two
lectures
on Australia's building innovations and their relevance to contemporary
Vietnam's economic and industrial developments which will have a United
Nations model-projected population of 150 million by 2050 and how to
evaluate
the impact and effectiveness of science-technology investment at a
special
workshop organised by the Rector (Dr Pham Quang Thao) of the National
Advanced
Training Institute (NATI) of Vienam Ministry of Trade in collaboration
with Prof Tran Van Hoa. The workshop took place at NATI campus in Hanoi
and was well attended by senior government officials and construction
experts
and executives who are responsible for the country's current extensive
construction and building programs at all levels.
In the photo
below
taken at a luncheon reception at Phu Dong Restaurant in Central Hanoi
in
honour of Vic and Margaret Jennings are (from left to right,
standing)
Margaret and Vic Jennings, (sitting) Mr Nguyen Chi (Senior Expert,
Ministry
of Trade),
Dr Pham Quang
Thao (Rector, NATI), Dr Bui Huu Dao (Director General, Science
Department,
Ministry of Trade) and
Prof Tran Van
Hoa.
Festschrift
in Honour of Prof Peter Lloyd
(of
the Grubel-Lloyd Index fame)
University
of Melbourne, Australia, 23-24 January 2003
Prof
Tran Van Hoa recently joined close colleagues and international friends
of Peter Lloyd to participate in a festschrift conference in the
Faculty
of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne (on 23-24
January
2003) to celebrate Peter's long-standing and significant contribution
to
the theory of international trade, notably his collaborative work with
Herbert Grubel (a Canadian economist then visiting the Australian
National
University) in formalising the so-called Grubel-Lloyd
Index of Intra-industry Trade. Used
extensively
in the profession as the main indicator of regional trade flows, the
index
has been able to track more accurately the intensity of South East
Asian
countries' trade in recent years and to provide an explanation for this
region's spectacular growth before the 1997 Asia crisis. Tran Van Hoa's
recent collaborations with Peter include leading two Australian
Government-funded
workshops on Competition Policy in Vietnam
and work with East Asian 3 economists on New
Asian Regionalism. Prof Lloyd, former
Ritchie
Professor and Dean of Economics and Commerce at the University, is also
a member of the Asia Pacific Economic
Forum
(APEF) - see below, a new East Asia-based
economics society, whose 2002 President Elect was Tran Van Hoa.
In
the photo below taken at the festschrift dinner hosted by the
Department
of Economics at the University of Melbourne House are (from left to
right)
Prof Peter Lloyd, Dr Lynn Williams, Prof Ross Williams (former Dean of
Economics and Commerce at the University) and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
In
the second photo taken at a festschrift farewell cocktail function at
Prof
Lloyd's residence are
(from
left to right) Tran Van Hoa, Emeritus Prof Max Corden and Prof Herbert
Grubel.
The
Melbourne Institute's 40th Anniversary (1962-2002)
University
of Melbourne
12
December 2002 and 7 February 2003
Tran
Van Hoa recently attended two 40th Anniversary Functions (12 December
2002
at the University House, and 7 February 2003 at Ormond College, College
Crescent, Parkville) of the Melbourne Institute (also known as the
Melbourne
Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) at the University of
Melbourne. Founded in January 1963 by Prof Ronald Henderson shortly
after
his arrival from Scotland and supported first by Prof Richard Downing
(former
Chairman of the Australian Broadcasting Commission) and Dr Duncan
Ironmonger,
Deputy Director (1972-1986) and Acting Director (1979-1984), and
subsequently
a succession of Directors and Acting Directors in the past 18 years,
the
Institute has become an icon and think-tank of the economics profession
in Australia with particular focus on national economic and social
issues.
Notable achievements by the Institute in its early years include the
founding
of the Australian Economic Reviewby
Duncan Ironmonger in 1968 and the pioneering work by Ronald Henderson
on
poverty (resulting in the famousHenderson
Poverty Line) in Australia. Sometimes
challenged
by some recent economists in Australia, the Henderson Poverty Line
(even
with its then New York basket of goods as the basic commodity weights)
still stands as the reference standard in poverty measurements by
serious
welfare economists in the country. Tran Van Hoa was a Senior Research
Fellow
(1981-1986) at the Institute and sometime Acting Director. While at the
Institute, he introduced Stanford University econometric software
package
TSP to the Institute's Long-term IMP Modelling Section (headed by Dr
Peter
Brain) to replace Adrian Pagan's computer programs in use then. Before
that in 1972, as a consultant to the Institute, he built Australia's
first
multi-sectoral econometric model (of the demand for telephone
services).
This novel modelling work was funded by the then Australia Postmaster
General
Department.
Attending
the anniversary functions were Australia's economic elite in the
academic,
government and corporate sectors and the Institute's former and current
staff.
In
the photo below taken at the 40th Anniversary Function at the
University
House on campus are (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa, Ms
Diana
Warren (a Research Fellow at the Institute and former student of Tran
Van
Hoa and Dr David Johnson, Deputy/Acting Director of the Melbourne
Institute.
WTO, China and the Asian
Economies:
Opportunitites, Challenges and
Prospects
An international conference
organised
by
the Asian Development Bank,
the University of Hong Kong and the University of Washington
Hong Kong 9-10 November 2002
Since its accession to the
WTO
in 2001, China has opened its doors wider to opportunitites and also
challenges
not only for its more than 1,300 million people but also for its
neighbours
in the Asian region and beyond. The conference, taking place on the
hilly
campus of the prestigious University of Hong Kong, was focused on these
issues and their implications, and attended by academics, government
officials,
international organisation representatives and business executives from
a number of major countries, Asian and non-Asian. Long regarded
awesomely
as a 'sleeping' dragon or 'wide' elephant awaiting awakening by the
outside
world, China has also been regarded, from within its border, as a small
innocent lamb waiting for the big wolf (WTO) coming to disturb it (as
portrayed
on CTV9 in Beijing late in 2001). The topics discussed at the
conference
dealt however with more wide-ranging and serious academic and policy
isssues.
These include a Greater China and the emergence of new Asian
regionalism
to counter the benign neglect of the IMF and other major economic
trading
blocs on Asia's problems, China's WTO membership and its trade
expansion,
China's trade, investment and development and its economic relations
with
other Asian economies. It is these very issues that, if handled or
dialogued
appropriately, may give rise to regional and international cooperation
(economic integration) and mutually beneficial development and growth
and
increasing living standards, instead of regional or global dominance
and
mistrust.
In the photo
below
taken in front of the Fountains Garden in the Meng Wah Complex at the
University
of Hong Kong are some of the Conference Session Chairs and Speakers:
(from
left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, ASEAN+3 Research Program,
Wollongong
University), Dr Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest (Chief Economist, Asian
Development
Bank), Dr Chira Hongladarom (Director, Foundation for International
Human
Resource Development, Thailand), Prof Karyiu Wong (Conference
Co-organiser,
RCIE, University of Washington), and Prof Tianshu Chu (East West
Center,
Hawaii).
Asia Recovery and Reforms:
Where
Are We Five Years On?
Thammasat University, 28-29
October 2002
The difficult problems and
challenging
issues of the Asia recovery from the 1997 crisis and subsequent
policies
for reforms were discussed recently at an international
conference on Asia Recovery and Reforms. The
conference was organised by the Faculty of Economics at
Thammasat
University and took place at the Imperial Queens Park Hotel in Bangkok.
The conference was attended by over
280 national and international economists, bankers, corporate
executives,
ministerial and other high-ranking government officials from major
countries
in the Asian region and the International Monetarty Fund and the World
Bank. Tran Van Hoa participated in the conference as a session chair, a
session discussant and also presented a paper on disturbing issues
crying
for serious focus in Economic
Crisis Management in Asia. At the panel discussions, he also
raised
a number of questions on the still ineffectiveness, five years on, of
international
organisations' rescue and reform policies for crisis economies in Asia.
More importantly, Tran Van Hoa proposed that serious efforts by these
economies'
governments, policy-makers, academics and corporate executives should
be
focused on more relevant and effective solutions even of a plurilateral
or regional nature to solve Asia's economic, financial and other crises
currently affecting its development and growth. The
ASEAN+3 (ASEAN+China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreementwithin the
context
of regional economic integration is a good example of what major
countries in Asia can or should do to restore their growth, to improve
their living standards, income distribution and security, and also to
reduce
inherent and crisis-induced poverty.
In the photo
below
taken at the Conference Reception Dinner hosted by the Thammasat
University
Economic Association and with Special Guest Speaker, the Governor of
the
Bank of Thailand, at the Imperial Queens Park Hotel in Bangkok are
(from
left to right) Ms Daranee (Secretary
General
of the Thammasat University Economic Association), Dr Naris Chaiyasoot
(Rector, Thammasat University), Dr Sukanya Nitungkorn (Dean, Faculty of
Economics, Thammasat University), Dr Wichai (Bank of Thailand), Prof
Tran
Van Hoa, Dr Prapasorn (Vice Rector, Thammasat University), and Prof
Watchareeya
(Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University).
In the photo
below
at the same reception are (from left to right) Professor
Tran Van Hoa and his former student (Dr Euamporn Tasarika, Assistant
Professor
of Economics at Thammasat University), and Dr Naris Chaiyasoot.
Wollongong
University Internationalisation and Off-shore Education in Vietnam
November
2002
The role played by Australia and
other
Western countries in assisting major developing economies in the Asian
region to enhance their capacity for economic development, trade and
investment
liberalisation, and structural reform in the face of increasing
globalisation,
WTO membership requirement, international competitiveness and crises
can
be assessed via these countries' numerous aid programs over the years.
Vietnam is one of these few developing economies that has also
developed
its own funded programs for joint vocational and degree education in
commerce,
business and IT in collaboration especially with Australian
post-sedondary
and tertiary institutions. The Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research
Program
at Wollongong University has, through its Director, Prof Tran Van Hoa,
been actively involved in some of these off-shore activities to enhance
the capacity and skills standards of Vietnam's government officials,
corporrate
executives and postgraduate students in this education.
In the photo
below
taken at the ceremony at the University of Wollongong to sign a
Memorandum
of Intent for an off-shore one-year Master of Commerce degree course to
be jointly delivered in Vietnam by Wollongong and Vietnam Ministry of
Trade
staff are (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Nguyen Thi Thu
Nguyet
(Rector, Ho Chi Minh City College of Foreign Economic Relations,
Vietnam
Ministry of Trade). Prof Rob Castle (Pro Vice-Chancellor (Academic),
University
of Wollongong) and the Hon. Commercial Consul of Vietnam in Sydney, Dr
Dinh Thi My Loan.
Asia Pacific Economic Forum
(APEF)
International Conference:
Impact of Asia and Terrorist
Attack Crises
on New Asian Regionalism,
Growth
and Trade, Globalisation and the WTO
in Asia and Australia
University of Wollongong,
5-6
July 2002
The Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) had its first
international
conference (conference organisers: Profs Tran Van Hoa and Charles
Harvie)
at the University of Wollongong in Australia, on 5-6 July 2002.
The
conference’s theme was how corporate and government leaderships in Asia
and Australia have to deal with and respond to the wide-ranging impact
of such crises as the Asia turmoil in 1997 and the 11 September 2001
attacks
on their economies’ growth, development, trade, regional economic
integration
and increasing globalisation and the WTO.
Paper contributors and speakers at the conference consist of
international
high-level academics and government officials (including a former Dean
of Commerce and the Ritchie Professor of Economics from the University
of Melbourne, a former Minister of the Economy from the Philippines and
a Deputy Minister of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises (SME) from
Indonesia)
from 7 major Asian countries (China, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, the
Philippines,
Thailand and Vietnam) plus Australia and New Zealand. Participants also
include economists from Pakistan, Argentina, the Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade, staff and undergraduate and postgraduate students
from
the Faculty of Law, and the Schools of Accounting and Finance,
Management
and Marketing, and Economics and Information Systems. The Hon Dr
Stephen
Martin, MP, Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism, senior UOW, Commerce
Faculty and Economics Department executives attended the opening
ceremony
and the UOW and regional media were also present. A piece on the APEF
conference
appeared in the Illawarra Mercury newspaper on Wednesday 10 July 2002.
The conference papers are in the process of being revised and
edited
for publication as a book by an internationally well-known publisher.
APEF (also known as the Soohyan Club) is a new international
economics
group set up in May 2001 at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon,
Korea. APEF 2002 President-elect is Prof Tran Van Hoa, of the
Department
of Economics and Director of Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research
Program,
University of Wollongong. APEF 2003 President is to be Prof Fuku
Kimura,
Keio University, Japan.
APEF’s objectives are to research, discuss and disseminate
substantive
findings and information on development, growth, trade, regional
integration
and international economic relations in APEC countries with special
focus
on East Asia, South East Asia and Oceania. APEF is a new regional
initiative by major Asian countries to rival such organisations as the
World Economic Forum (and the World Social Forum) and to promote an
Asian
identity and characteristics and scope of studies and collaboration.
ASEAN+3 (ASEAN + China, Korea and Japan) and ASEAN+5 (ASEAN+3
plus
Australia and New Zealand, a current trade arrangement supported by
Prime
Ministers John Howard (Australia) and Helen Clark (New Zealand)) are
two
specific areas of interest to APEF studies.
2001 APEF memberships include academics from high-level
universities
in the US (Chicago), Canada (Alberta), Japan (Keio and Hitoshibashi),
Korea
(Korea, Kangwon National and Sungkunkwan), China (Hong Kong and City
Hong
Kong), Australia, and government officials (Bank of Korea). In 2002, 5
new country memberships were admitted to the APEF: China, Indonesia,
the
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
In the photo at the opening ceremony of the
APEF international conference on campus at the University of Wollongong
are (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Yanyun Zhao (People
University
of China, Beijing), Prof John Glynn (Dean of Faculty of Commerce, UOW),
Prof Margaret Sheil (Pro Vice Chancellor – Research), Dr Nguyen The
Dzung
(the World Bank, Vietnam), the Hon. Dr Stephen Martin (Member of
Parliament
for Cunningham and Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism), Dr Sur
Nustrisno
(Deputy Minister for the Ministry of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises,
Indonesia), Prof H.H. Lee (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof
Peter
Lloyd (Ritchie Research Professor and former Dean of Commerce,
University
of Melbourne), Prof Apichai Puntasen (Thammasat University, Thailand),
and Prof Charles Harvie (Director, the SME Research Centre, UOW).
Can the WTO Effectively
Enhance
World Trade and
Improve Member-Country Welfare?
Gerhard Mercator University,
Duisburg,
Germany
29-30 June 2002
While globalisation and the WTO have the
common
objectives of increasing world trade and standards-of-living, the
conditions
required to achieve these are numerous, burdensome and may be difficult
to meet for many member-countries or countries that aspire to be WTO
members
in the near future. These and other related issues were discussed at a
recent international conference at the Gerhard Mercator University in
Germany.
Organised jointly by Prof Karyiu Wong
(University
of Washington in Seattle, USA) and Prof Guenter Heiduk (Gerhard
Mercator
University - Mercator or Kremer, the inventor of the 16th century
Mercator
world map-projection system), the conference brought together
well-known
economic experts world-wide to discuss those important issues, recent
advances
in international trade theory underlying the WTO objectives and
globalisation,
the problems faced by WTO members in implementing the organisation’s
basic
principles, issues in dispute settlements, and WTO and China. The
conference
organisers plan to publish the presented papers as a book.
Representing the University of Wollongong
at
the conference was Prof Tran Van Hoa of the ASEAN+3 Research Program.
He
presented a paper on new (non-CGE/GTAP) econometric methodologies to
measure
the impact of China’s WTO membership to its investment, consumption and
growth, and to comment on fundamental aspects of the WTO contingent
protection
agreements.
In the photo below are, from left to right,
Professors Karyiu Wong, Tran Van Hoa and Guenter Heiduk at the Gerhard
Mercator University Central Administration Building.
Problems with Asia Recovery
in
2002 and
Lessons in Our Recent Economic
Crisis Management
April 2002
During 2000/01, more than a few national
and
especially international economic and financial analysts, advisers and
consultants made a rather bold assertion that, after more than four
years
of a damaging slowdown in crisis economies in Asia in particular and in
other major economic or free-trade blocs in general, there were
promising
signs of a strong economic recovery in Asia. This prediction did not,
however,
turn out to be correct as we have come to experience a great deal of
old
and new problems, economic, financial, social and political, unfolding
in crisis economies and beyond since then. The bottom-line effect of
all
these problems is unfortunately that it has portrayed a mismanagement
of
economic and financial crises and this has been seriously hampering a
real
recovery in these economies. What kind of lessons have we learned then
from the 1997 Asia crisis and what kind of prescriptions have we
appropriately
developed or can we develop in order to avoid or manage better similar
economic and financial crises in the future?
Some of the major issues associated with or
conducive to a real Asia recovery and new ideas to develop better or
more
appropriate economic and financial crisis management in the years to
come
are discussed or dealt with in two new books (The
Asia Recovery, 2001, and Economic
Crisis Management, 2002). Both books
were
edited
by Prof Tran Van Hoa and published by Edward
Elgar in the UK and US. The books provide
in-depth analysis of major issues and fundamental problems associated
with
the recovery and plausible alternative remedies for better future
crisis
management. Since each chapter in the books is written by in-country
experts
and deals in-depth with each major crisis country’s issues, problems
and
prospects, it is an assessment of true underlying trends, developments,
resources, attitudes and governance, these aspects are often neglected
in overall or generalist assessments from an out-of-country perspective.
Asia Crisis: What Crisis
for
China?
May 2002
A recent important book, edited by Prof
Tran
Van Hoa (University of Wollongong), deals with possible problems
and issues facing China after the Asia Crisis of 1997. Some of these
problems
and issues are being taken up by analysis of the OECD (see for example
www.oecd.org/bookshop) and other international institutions or
organisations.
The book (see below) was published in 2000 by
Edward
Elgar in the UK and Northampton, Mass., has received wide
attention
and comments from the international academic community (eg, Journal
of Economic Literature, American Economic Association's e-JEL, JEL on
CD
and EconLit) . The perception that China was hardly touched
deeply by the Asia Crisis is true, but this does not mean that China
does
not have to face other problems and issues after the Asia turmoil: the
challenges of increasing globalisation, the abandonment or
neglect
of Asian economies in general by major non-Asia economies or groups of
economies after the crisis, China's accession to the WTO, and the
responses
to China's rise in trade and economic power from other major economies
in Asia such as Japan and Korea. These are analysed or foreshadowed in
the book China's Trade and Investment After
the
Asia Crisis.
AUSAID WORK AND FUTURE
STRATEGIES
IN VIETNAM AND ASEAN+ RESEARCH
PROGRAM
27 March 2002
Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director of the Vietnam
and ASEAN+ Research Program at the University of Wollongong, recently
attended
the 2002 New South Wales-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce Annual General
Meeting
in Sydney to discuss an executive report on Ausaid work and its future
strategies for Vietnam. The AGM was co-ordinated by Mr Laurence Strano,
President of the NSW-VN Chamber of Commerce, and the report was
presented
by the Vietnam Director of AusAID (Mr Bill Costello) in the Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Canberra.
Prof Tran Van Hoa’s recent work on
Vietnam’s
2002 trade and investment prospects in the climate of a global economic
slowdown was published in a Special TET (New Year) Edition of Vietnam
Investment
Review, a prestigious weekly review by the Ministry of Planning and
Investment
in Hanoi. It was pointed out at the AGM that this work’s assessment of
Vietnam’s achievements and prospects was very similar to the basis of
AusAID-DFAT’s
planned aid strategies for Vietnam in the next few years.
The AGM function was attended by over 70
business
leaders, academics, and diplomats from Vietnam, Pakistan and the
Philippines.
At the function, Prof Tran Van Hoa also gave an account of the
Australian
embassy’s early experiences in Hanoi and moved a vote of thanks to
AusAID
on behalf of the people and government of Vietnam for Australia’s
long-standing
official development assistance to Vietnam to assist its economic
development
and poverty reduction plans. This aid is ranked third in Australia’s
ODA
program (after Papua New Guinea and Indonesia) and amounts to $60
million a year.
In the photo are, from left to right, Prof
Tran Van Hoa, Miss Tran Thuy Nga (a Master of International Business
student
at Wollongong University), Dr Dinh Thi My Loan (Vietnam’s Commercial
Consul
and Head of Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney), and Mr Bill Costello
(Vietnam
Director, AusAID-DFAT in Canberra).
ASEAN+ and SME Research
Centres
at
2002 China Update in Canberra
8 March 2002
The Department of Economics in the Faculty
of Commerce at Wollongong University was prominently represented at an
important international conference 2002 CHINA UPDATE at the Australian
National University on 8 March (International Women Day) 2002. The
conference’s
objectives were to assess up-to-date economic and reform developments
in
China (a market of 1300 million people) and the country’s important
trade
and investment relations and potential with Australia and the rest of
the
world.
Representing the University of Wollongong
were
Professors Tran Van Hoa (Director, ASEAN+ Research Program, UOW) and
Charles
Harvie (Director, SME Research Centre, UOW) who took an active role in
debates at the conference. Both are nationally and internationally
well-known
economic experts and prolific writers on the Chinese economy as well as
other major countries, developing and transitional, in South and East
Asia
and Central and Eastern Europe (see the website
www.uow.edu.au/~tvheco/tvh.htm).
They are also organising an important forthcoming international
conference
in Sydney later this year for the newly established international
economics
and trade society, the Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF). APEF was set
up in Chunchon, Korea, in May 2001 to deal with major economic and
trade
issues for the ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan) integration from an
APEF
perspective. Professor Tran Van Hoa is APEF’s 2002 President-elect.
The 2002 CHINA UPDATE Conference was
organised
by the China Economy and Business Program at the ANU, whose chairman is
Professor Ross Garnaut. Professor Garnaut was Australia’s first
Ambassador
to China and the principal proponent of the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation
(APEC) forum concept during the Australian Labor Party Government years
in the 1970s-1980s. APEC has become the main annual activity of focus
and
debates at the ministerial and presidential levels for the 21 member
countries
around the Pacific Rim. APEC is a regional trade arrangement, a rival
to
the World Trade Organization (WTO). China (and Taiwan) became a WTO
member
in December 2001 after more than 15 years of negotiations. Vietnam,
another
major transition economy in Asia, is expected to be a WTO member in a
year
of two.
Present at the Conference were members of
parliament,
academics, business leaders, senior government officials, diplomats and
doctoral students. Notably present were the Hon Dr Stephen Martin (an
Economics
Graduate from UOW and an MP for Cunningham and Shadow Minister for
Trade
and Tourism), Sir Arvi Parbo (Australia’s top businessman and Chairman
of Western Mining Corporation), and senior representatives from, among
others, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Embassy of the
Philippines, the Embassy of Vietnam, Citigroup, and the Commonwealth
Bank
of Australia.
In the photo taken in the Peninsula Foyer
(overlooking
Lake Burley Griffin) at the National Museum of Australia in Canberra
are
(from left to right), Ms Sarah Wong (ANU), Dr Mei Wen (RSPAS, ANU),
Prof
Tran Van Hoa, and Ms Tracy Simms (Marketing Manager, Ganlo Pty Ltd).
Vietnam’s New Year
Celebration
and
UOW’s Vietnam+/ASEAN Research
Program
Sydney 9 February 2002
University of Wollongong’s
Vietnam+/ASEAN
Research Program was represented by its Director, Prof Tran Van Hoa, at
the recent celebration of Vietnam’s New Year (Year of the Horse) at the
Consulate-General of the Republic of Vietnam in Sydney.
The celebration was not only
for
the traditional annual Spring festive season observed in Vietnam and
most
other Asian countries deep-rooted in the lunar calendar and
Confucianism,
but also for its remarkable achievement in economic development and
trade
with Australia in 2001. Australia-Vietnam trade reached $2.4 billion in
2001 and expected to be $2.8 billion in 2002. This was attained despite
the current global economic downturn which has stunted economic
development
and growth in many major ‘once miracle’ economies in the Asian region
as
well as Japan, the world's second largest economy.
The Vietnam+/ASEAN Research
Program
has been active in promoting this bilateral trade activity with
collaboration
in research and training with Vietnam’s various government ministries
and
tertiary institutions, funded either by the Australian Government or
the
University of Wollongong.
Attending the celebration were
business
leaders from the Vietnamese-Australian community in NSW, academics and
Vietnam’s diplomats stationed in Sydney.
In the photo taken at the
Vietnam’s
Consulate-General in Sydney were, from left to right, Professor Tran
Van
Hoa, Dr Dinh Thi My Loan (Vietnam’s Commercial Consul and Head of
Vietnam
Trade Office in Sydney), Mrs Nguyen Van Tho and the Hon. Nguyen Van
Tho,
Vietnam’s Consul-General.
Focus on e-commerce,
e-business
and e-trade
in ASEAN+3 economies
19-20 November 2001
E-commerce, e-business and e-trade and
their
other related areas including B2B, B2C, B2G, regulation, protection and
uptake have recently been discussed at a conference organised by the
Australian
Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) on 19-20 November 2001 in
Melbourne,
Australia. These are the current issues relevant not only to Australia
but also to other major economies in Asia who are trying to adapt and
reform
in order to catch up or restructure to deal with emerging problems in
economic
development and growth, expanding borderless trade, and increasing
globalisation.
Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director of the Vietnam+
Research Program at the University of Wollongong, attended the
conference
to exchange ideas and to gather experiences on e-commerce, e-business
and
e-trade and also on relevant and effective ways to assist major
developing
economies in Asia (such as Vietnam, China and Thailand) in
capacity-building
and infrastructure setting-up in these areas. A major training project
on e-commerce skills standards and operability for e-experts in these
countries
with expected AusAID-APEC funding is being prepared by him in
collaboration
with Vietnam Ministry of Trade, the ACCC and other educational
institutions
in China and Thailand during 2002.
In the photo are an ACCC Commissioner on
IT,
Dr David Cousins, and Prof Tran Van Hoa, in the e-commerce conference
hall
at the Melbourne Conference Centre, South Bank, Australia.
VIETNAM+PLUS
RESEARCH PROGRAM:
PROMOTING
INTERNATIONAL NETWORK, COMMERCE RESEARCH COLLABORATION AND EDUCATION IN
ASIA
December
2001
The
international
network, research collaboration and education standing of the Faculty
of
Commerce at the University of Wollongong were further significantly
enhanced
recently in two major Asian transition countries, namely China and
Vietnam,
with two important lectures (1-4 December 2001) and a major conference
(19 December 2001) organised and delivered by senior staff in the
Department
of Economics on current top world economic and commerce issues. During
the lecturing visits, important areas and issues on future research and
education collaboration were also discussed.
In China, the
first lecture was on Implications for
Asia
and Australia of the ASEAN+China Free Trade Agreement
(which was endorsed by the (10-member) ASEAN Leaders at their 7th ASEAN
Summit and 5th ASEAN+3 Summit in Brunei on 5 November 2001) and given
by
Prof Tran Van Hoa, Coordinator of the Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research
Program
in the Faculty’s International Business Research Institute (IBRI), to
the
prestigious Financial Policy Research Centre of the People University
of
China in Beijing.
The second
lecture
was on Measuring the Impact of China’s
World Trade Organisation Membership (WTO
143rd member, which was endorsed by the WTO at its 4th Ministerial
Meeting
in Doha on 11 November 2001 and ratified by China on 11 December 2001)
on
its Investment and Growth and also
delivered
by Prof Tran van Hoa to the Aetna School of Management of the Shanghai
Jiaotong University. Shanghai Jiaotong University is China’s top
university
and the alter mater of China’s current President, Jiang Zeming, as well
as other leaders of China’s government departments,
state-owned-enterprises
and private businesses.
In Vietnam,
Prof
Tran Van Hoa also convened the International
Conference on Competitiveness and Globalisation
in collaboration with Vietnam’s Central Institute for Economic
Management
(CIEM) of the powerful Ministry of Planning and Investment. The
conference
had the participation of staff of the Department of Economics (Prof
Charles
Harvie), Thammasat University (Prof Chaiyuth Punyasavatsut) in
Thailand,
Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Ministry of
Industry.
The conference took place at CIEM in Hanoi and was nationally televised
on VTV1 and widely reported in Saigon
News
and Vietnam Investment Review,
a monthly English language publication in Vietnam with links to
Australia’s
News Corp.
These
high-profile
activities by University of Wollongong's internationally well-known
senior
academics with China’s top-rung universities and Vietnam’s economic
policy
think tank attracted a large number of attendants (academic staff,
postgraduate
students, government officials and corporate executives) as well
as
several international students from the University of Wollongong who
were
on holiday or on study fieldtrip in China and Vietnam during the
southern
Summer 2001.
In the photo
below
on RUC’s Haidian campus are (on the left) Prof Yulu Chen, Vice-Dean of
the School of Finance and Director of China's Financial Policy Research
Centre of the People University of China in Beijing, and Prof Tran Van
Hoa.
In the photo
below
at a reception in the Faculty Club of Shanghai Jiaotong University in
China
are (from left to right) Ms Zong Ming Tang (Lecturer in Management),
Prof
Tran Van Hoa, Prof Huang Chen (Aetna School of Management). and Prof Xu
Zhou (Director of Minhang District Campus, Aetna School of Management,
Shanghai Jiaotong University).
In the third
photo
at the Opening Ceremony of the Conference on Competitiveness and
Globalisation
at the headquarter of CIEM, Ministry of Planning and Investment, in
Hanoi,
Vietnam, are (from left to right) Prof Charles Harvie, Prof Chaiyuth
Punyasavatsut
(Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand), Ms Sonya McKay (a lawyer and
Australia's Green Party MP Candidate), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Le Dang
Doanh
(President of CIEM and Adviser to MPI Minister), and Dr Dinh Van An
(incoming
President of CIEM).
