Energy Security and the Future

The worlds demand for energy is increasing. Most of this energy comes from fossil fuels and with that an increasing amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are being belched into the atmosphere. Fossil fuels are being rapidly depleted, and many countries have to import coal oil and gas to meet their energy needs. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that we will need to reduce our emissions by 60% to prevent a global environmental catastrophe. What role does nuclear power have to play in the future global energy market and the reduction in greenhouse emissions?

My Generation

Nuclear Power is a long term economic commitment. After a ten year planning and construction phase most nuclear plants will run for between 40 and 50 years. Depending on the decommissioning option and the waste disposal method chosen the financial legacy of the plant could last for more than a hundred years after you choose to build it. Governments must be prepared to commit themselves and their successors for the billions of dollars over generations to come. This requires certainty about the future costs and competitiveness of nuclear power.

If you build it...

Despite having operating costs competitive with other major sources of power generation nuclear is not currently an attractive economic option in many western countries. Construction costs of nuclear power plants are much higher than for coal or gas fired power stations. The length of the construction period is also longer from 4 to 5 years. This is in addition to the time required for public inquiry and regulatory approval. There is also community opposition to nuclear power that needs to be allayed. In deregulated electricity markets, like the US, UK and Australia these factors make nuclear power an unattractive option for future power generation. If the decision to go nuclear was made much of the construction bill would fall on the taxpayer.

The UK's Department of Trade and Industry recently published a report saying that it could cost up to 20 billion dollars in subsidies and that nuclear power is "too expensive to be justified for carbon dioxide purposes alone".

Nothing lasts forever

Renewables

The great thing about renewable energy is that they will never run out, but is there enough of it out there to meet current energy needs. When taken together wind, solar and accessible geothermal energy could meet the energy needs of the US 15,000 times over according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. When you include microhydro, wave and tidal power and biofuels the potential is enormous. Realistically the amount that can be economically harvested today is very small. However as the cost of renewables fall they have the potential to one day meet all our energy needs.

Nuclear

Today nuclear power accounts for 7% of the world's energy and 16% of the world's electricity. Official estimates from the International Atomic Energy Agency predict that this share will decrease to 12-13% by 2030. However other estimates that take into account additional economic and political factors predict that the share of nuclear will increase to 27%, two and a half times today's current output. At the current rate of consumption uranium deposits that can be economically extracted will last for the next 50-65 years. Less attractive deposits could extend that to 120 years. But an increase in fuel price won't necessarily mean a large increase for the consumer. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency doubling the price of nuclear fuel will only increase the cost of electricity by 2 to 4%.

If there is to be a radical increase in the use of nuclear power uranium resources will be gone in less than a century. However most power plants today only unlock 2% of the energy contained in the nuclear fuel rods. Breeder reactors can be used to recycle this fuel and unlock their full potential. Even if the world converted to entirely to nuclear, breeder reactors could ensure a supply of nuclear fuel for thousands of years. However, breeder reactors and their accompanying reprocessing facilities have been shunned by many countries as they can be used to produce materials for nuclear weapons. However India is embarking on an ambitious plan to use breeder reactors to extend it's small supplies of uranium for centuries.

A program of breeder reactors has other advantages, in the end they produce less highly radioactive waste and they can be run at temperatures high enough to 'crack' water and produce hydrogen a future hydrogen economy. If the proliferation issues surrounding breeder reactors can be controlled, nuclear power could last for millennia.

Coal

Coal is the staple of electricity production today. Of all of the energy produced in Australia, not just electricity, half of it comes from coal. One quarter of all the worlds energy is supplied by coal. Despite a low steady price and seemingly endless supplies coal will one day run out. At the current rate of use, coal won't be depleted for 265 years according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. However the use of coal is increasing with the US planning to increase coal consumption 40% by 2025. At this rate of increase coal will be gone in 93 years. Increases in coal consumption are predicted to occur across the developed and developing world to meet growing electricity demand.

The increase in demand for energy is likely to be offset somewhat by new coal burning technologies that are producing massive increases in efficiency. Currently modern coal fired power stations run at about 30-40% efficiency, comparable with nuclear power. Continuing improvements could push the efficiency of new plants to 50%. One ambitious project is FutureGen, a $1.3 billion project being run by the US government that aims to produce a plant capable of reaching 70% efficiency on a commercial scale by 2025. These efficiency increases will offset the increase in demand somewhat, but coal is still a finite resource and we are likely to run into major shortages before the century is out.

Power to the people

Energy security isn't just talking about the long term stability of the electricity supply. The short term integrity of the power grid is important too. One of the major factors in providing a large portion of grid power is that the demand changes throughout the day. Nuclear has a disadvantage here against other power sources as it can't be adjusted on a time scale short enough to deal with fluctuations in the grid. Nuclear power plants output power at full capacity when they are operational. Some renewables are even worse. Solar power obviously only works when the sun is shining and wind power is often unpredictable. To provide a consistent supply on a large scale these type of schemes would have to include expensive power storage facilities. Other renewables such as geothermal energy are much more suited to large scale supply.

One possible solution to the problem of continuous supply is DIY power generation. The installation of micro power plants into homes, apartment buildings and offices has many advantages. The options available at the moment include solar power, wind turbines and an ultra-efficient internal combustion engine. There has even been a micro nuclear reactor proposed for larger residential complexes, however this design remains on paper. The consumer benefits by a reduced or eliminated power bill and a degree of insurance against possible increases in the cost of electricity in the future. Electricity can even be fed back into the grid if the user doesn't need it. The environment benefits from a twofold reduction in greenhouse emissions, the power generation is greenhouse friendly and no power is wasted in getting it from source to user. If enough users can join such a system then the grid will benefit by having increased resilience from disruptions. As we recently saw in North America a minor fault can trigger power outages across huge populations. Distributed power generation offers an alternative to the current centralised system but would require a major policy shift in government and significant subsidies and incentives.

The Future

The table in the section on the basics lists the cost of a number of different electricity alternatives.

The big question is what future costs of alternatives to nuclear power will be. There are a number of factors influencing this. Firstly research and development into all forms of electricity generation continues actively and increases in efficiency and reductions in cost can probably be expected across the board. For example in the last 20 years the price of solar power has dropped by a nearly a factor of 5. It has been predicted that cheap efficient solar that can compete with other electricity sources will be available by 2025.

The environmental costs must also be considered. Currently nuclear power and most renewables produce very little greenhouse gasses about 100 times less than that produced by coal or gas fired power stations. This may change in the next twenty years as increases in efficiency and the technology of carbon sequestration take off. Coal could potential end up with a very similar cost to nuclear power, both in terms of dollar value and greenhouse emissions.

Governments and energy policy will definitely change over the coming decades. By formulating policy, investing in research and development and subsidising electricity production politicians can steer the country's source of energy in their chosen direction. This can be seen when comparing the United States to Europe where renewables like wind and nuclear power dominate the energy picture while the USA continues to rely on coal.

The Facts

Before any government embarks on a program of nuclear energy they must be prepared to commit to a nuclear future. Aside from the questions of safety and nuclear waste it must be known if the project will be economically feasible in the long term. There are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding an energy policy that includes nuclear power. A public inquiry must determine the long term costs and see how nuclear power stacks up against future developments in other energy sources. Energy security including the long term availability of fuel and a continuous supply need to be ensured. Any government that does not answer these questions before initiating a nuclear power program is living in a fools paradise.